Kentucky Derby Future Wager Betting Tips
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The Future Wager is NOW
2014 marks the 16th year of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager ("KDFW') and with an outstanding list of Kentucky Derby contenders shaping up, it also promises to be one of the most exciting and lucrative betting years yet! Using the past twelve years as a guide, we can breakdown some of the Kentucky Derby betting trends and other key bet analysis to make good horse picks and profiting on the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.
Past Winners and Performance
The first thirteen years of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager results are split between good payouts on contenders and mutuel field horses that seem to come out of nowhere. This shows that there are two ways to make money on the Kentucky Derby Future Wager and it pays well to consider both.
For example, in 2001 and 2000, Monarchos and Fusaichi Pegasus were going for very generous prices in Pool 1 compared to their starting prices on Kentucky Derby Day.
Then, in 1999 and 2002, Charismatic and War Emblem came out of the blue to give the field players the money.
In 2003, Funny Cide was a great price as a single wagering interest in all three pools, paying considerably more to his Future Wager bettors than his Derby Day pari-mutuel of $27.60.
2010's Kentucky Derby winner, Super Saver, is the perfect example of the wagering value of the Future Wager as he returned a Kentucky Derby Day win of $18 for a $2 wager. That return was well below the return on a $2 bet in Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools 1 ($43.20), 2 ($51.20) and 3 ($73).
To get the best of both worlds, the best KY Derby bet is to take two or three shots at some of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager contenders with nice prices, and then use a sizeable field bet to hedge your bet. On Kentucky Derby day, you could have more than 50 percent of the horses covered, and a variety of ways to collect your winnings.
The Goal of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager
Picking the winner of the first jewel of the Triple Crown can seem challenging so far out. After all, it's hard enough to pick the winner on Kentucky Derby day never mind two months out. But, the goal on the future wager is a bit different from what you might be trying to accomplish the day of Derby. In the case of the KYDerby Future Wager, the goal is to make wagers on horses that will start in the Kentucky Derby at odds significantly lower than what they will be on Derby day. So, don't stress too much about who will wear the garland of roses at Churchill Downs on May 3, 2014, instead try to predict who has the best chance of making it to the starting gate on May 3rd! If the KY Derby Contenders load in the gate on Kentucky Derby Day and you are holding a ticket at 30-1 on a horse that is racing at 6-1 odds, then you have played the wager well, win or lose.
In order to focus on horses that will be most likely to start in the Kentucky Derby, steer clear of horses with reasons not to run in the Derby. These would include foreign horses where their commitment to running could be questioned and sprinter-types with possible distance limitations where, for example, he may only have a 50-50 chance to stretch it out to a mile-and-a-quarter, In both of these scenarios, you have to factor these potential issues and limitations into the future wager price you are looking for.
One of the more attractive Kentucky Derby Future Wager selections would be a North American based 3-year old with the pedigree and potential to stretch out to the Derby distance and connections that have displayed a strong commitment or desire to run in the Derby. In this scenario, the only remaining variable is ultimate performance on Kentucky Derby Day. This is an intelligent future wager with the potential for a solid return on your investment.
The Mutuel Field, Pool 1
Although many horse bettors will dismiss the field because of low odds of 5-2 or 2-1, it's important to discuss and consider it, especially in first two pools of any Kentucky Derby campaign. Getting a good position on the field is important since it can provide the confidence to attack your personal favorites on Derby Day. And if that isn't enough, the field in Pool 1 has actually produced 54.2% or 59 out of the last 109 Derby starters so it's significant enough to consider.
Many Kentucky Derby Future players use the mutuel field as a "saver' bet while searching for bargain prices. The 2002 Kentucky Derby which was won by the late developing War Emblem is good illustration of how that philosophy might work. War Emblem returned $43 on a $2 Derby win bet, but only $7.60 as a member of the Pool 1 mutuel field. But the "all others 3-year-olds' betting interest in that pool also included Proud Citizen (at post time odds of 23-1), Perfect Drift (7-1), Medagliad'Oro (6-1), Essence of Dubai (10-1), Castle Gandolfo (14-1) and seven. The top three finishers in that Derby – War Emblem, Proud Citizen and Perfect Drift – were members of the mutuel field.
When to make your Kentucky Derby Future Wager
The best time to bet on the Kentucky Derby Future Wager is just before closing time on the last day of the wagering period which is Sunday at 6:00 pm EST. The KDFW Odds will fluctuate over three days of betting and by making your bet closer to the end of the pool window, you are more likely to somewhat lock in your odds. If you need to make your bet early, it's best to wait to see the results of Kentucky Derby prep races on the Saturday which often cause a significant swing in the odds on Future Wager betting interests based on the strength of their performances in those races.
View current Kentucky Derby Odds to Win
Remember that the Kentucky Derby Future Wager has 24 betting interests, but a takeout of only16 percent. This means that unless the public correctly assesses the chances of all 24 betting interests, overlays – and several of them – will exist in each pool.. In 2003, Funny Cide was a glaring example of this. While he had not won a race as a 3-year-old, he really had never run a bad race in his life. And his odds in each of his 2003 races indicated that the bettors believed he had talent. In the Holy Bull in January, he was 5-1, yet in the subsequent Pool 1 he was a whopping 93-1. In his next start, the Louisiana Derby in March he went off at 6-1; Pool 2 closed a week later with his final odds at more than 59-1. Finally, Pool 3 closed with his odds at nearly 53-1, yet a week later he runs second to the prohibitive Derby favorite, Empire Maker in the Wood Memorial, and at 5-1! Therefore, no matter how difficult it may seem to assess the chances of young 3-year-olds, the existence of overlays is almost assured. The trick is finding them.
Putting It All Together to Make your KDFW
The field is a good bet as long as it is 5-2 or higher. Here's what you might do if you have $200 to wager you might bet $100 to win on the field, and split the other $100 between your top two or three Kentucky Derby favorites. Have fun & Good luck!